Liberal vs. Moderate Democrats on Use of US Troops

Experts participating in the Council on Foreign Relations’ recent Preventative Priorities Survey classified the situations in Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Korean Peninsula as tier I conflicts to watch in 2022. If conflict erupts at any of these potential flashpoints, President Biden’s response to the situation will be a defining moment for his administration and could have major implications for the structure of the international order. While the direction of foreign policy is not, and should not be, solely determined by public opinion, it is one of the many factors that policymakers must consider. Because of that, it is crucial to understand how President Biden’s Democratic base might react to these hypothetical conflict situations. Democrats are not an ideological monolith, and the newly released research brief “Liberal and Moderate Democrats: How Different Are They in Views on Foreign Policy?” finds that some of the most surprising divisions between liberal and moderate Democrats relate to the use of the US military to defend allies under threat. 

In the 2021 Chicago Council Survey, 60 percent of self-described Democrats identified themselves as being liberal to some degree, while 40 percent identified as being moderate or conservative to some degree. For this analysis, moderate and conservative Democrats are grouped together as “moderate Democrats,” because the policy positions of these two groups tend to align more closely with each other than they do with the positions of liberal Democrats.

Moderate and Liberal Differences on Defense Preferences 

In general, moderate Democrats are more supportive than liberals of funding the US military. In 2020, when asked whether federal defense spending should be expanded, cut back, or kept about the same, a majority of liberal Democrats preferred to see the budget cut back (58%).  Moderate or conservative Democrats were more evenly split on their preferences, with a plurality of 40 percent opting to keep defense spending at about the same level (vs. 24% cut back). 

While moderates are more likely to support funding the military, it is actually liberals who are more likely to back using US troops to come to the defense of our allies and partners. This is true for a number of examples, including if North Korea invades South Korea (69% liberals vs. 49% moderates) or attacks Japan (70% vs. 53%), if Russia invades a Baltic NATO ally (73% vs. 48%), or the rest of Ukraine (60% vs. 47%), and if China invades Taiwan (58% vs. 38%). 

Possible Explanations

These findings are somewhat surprising given that liberal Democrats at both the public and elite levels typically prefer diplomatic solutions to international issues over military ones. As recently as January 26,  Representatives Pramila Jayapal (WA-07) and Barbara Lee (CA-13), leaders of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, issued a statement claiming there is “no military solution” for the crisis in Ukraine and expressing “significant concerns” about new troop deployments. Among the public, just over half of liberal Democrats (51%) believe that the United States uses military tools too much, compared to only a quarter of moderate Democrats who hold that view. 

This increased willingness of liberal Democrats to defend allies and partners from countries such as Russia, North Korea, and China may stem, in part, from the specific nature of the threat these countries pose. Liberal Democrats (65%) are much more likely than moderate Democrats (39%) to classify promoting and defending human rights in other countries as a very important foreign policy goal for the United States. Liberal Democrats may be more willing to defend allies in these situations because of concerns about the human rights implications of invasions, especially by countries that regularly disregard human rights standards. 

In War on the Rocks, the Council’s Dina Smeltz and Jordan Tama offer another possible explanation for the high willingness to use force among liberal Democrats. They argue that liberal Democrats who support defending democracies from countries like Russia “could be motivated by concern about authoritarian leaders undermining democracy in the context of Trumpism at home and democratic backsliding abroad.” 

While Democratic Party leadership remains predominantly moderate, an increasing share of Democrats among the public are beginning to identify as ideologically liberal, making their influence all the more significant in policy decisions. The Biden administration has made it clear that it intends to exhaust diplomatic options with potential rivals and adversaries before deploying US troops, but the surprisingly high levels of support for defending South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Ukraine, and other allies among liberal Democrats are still noteworthy and deserving of further analysis.