Election Fraud Narrative Underway in South Korean Race
The building of an election fraud narrative in South Korea's presidential election is already underway.
In my most recent piece, I asked if polls with questionable methods showing a 10-point lead for Yoon Seok-yeol in South Korea’s presidential race would contribute to an election fraud narrative should he lose by a narrow margin. I now have an answer: yes, they will.
After the most recent piece went live, I received an email sent to nearly all foreign correspondents from the head of an organization whose listed aim is to “protect the life and liberty of the future generations of Korea.” The email contains a laundry list of grievances and conspiracy theories, and alleges—with no evidence whatsoever—that election fraud plans are already well underway by the Moon administration in cooperation with China. And it points to Yoon’s lead in polls as definitive—which it is not. Here’s an excerpt.
"This letter is to warn you about another election frauds being planned by the same group for the forthcoming March 9 Presidential Election […] The ruling party candidate, Lee Jae Myung, is now trailing by about 10% behind the major opposition party candidate, Yoon Suk Yeol in most of the polls conducted recently […] It is a matter of life and death to Moon if his party loses the election. He is expected to do whatever he has in his power to win the election. It is certain he will discuss his election strategy with the CCP when he visits China before the election. I have no doubt that his pro-China regime will risk anything to try to win through fraudulent elections."
This builds on the narrative of election fraud—again, with no evidence to support those allegations—that surfaced following the landslide loss suffered by the conservatives in the April 15, 2020 National Assembly election. (I won’t rehash that now, but the interested can read a good recap here.) It’s worth noting that not even the losing party—then known as the United Front Party—thought the allegations were worth investigating.
While it is true that Yoon is leading in most polls, polling that uses live interviewers rather than an automated response system shows a race within the margin of error with four weeks left. If those polls are accurate, and I think they are a better representation of the race than those that show Yoon with a 10-point lead, Lee still very much as a chance to win.
Of course, it is unclear how representative the aforementioned email is when it comes to the conspiratorial-minded. But if Lee does pull out a victory, election fraud conspiracy theorists will likely lean heavily on polls showing Yoon with a 10-point lead, even if that 10-point lead was an illusion created by questionable methods.