The bulls have been raging and the economy has added jobs year after year, yet productivity growth has remained stubbornly stuck for more than a decade. Years after the financial crisis—and despite a high-tech innovation economy—this productivity paradox continues to bedevil economists, businessmen, and policymakers around the world. Is the productivity paradox due to a mismeasurement of our modern digital economy, or must we face up to persistent productivity doldrums? And what will be the fate of the US economy more broadly over the next few years as the Federal Reserve transitions from Janet Yellen to Jerome Powell and finally normalizes monetary policy? What impact will the recently passed tax cut have on growth?
Background reading and multimedia:
- Why the pessimists are wrong about the new US tax law
Martin Feldstein, Harvard Business Review, January 26, 2018
- Productivity data: Why the numbers don't add up in the digital age
Gillian Tett, Financial Times, November 3, 2017
- Boom vs. doom: A debate on the future economy
Chicago Council on Global Affairs, December 5, 2017