The US economy seems exuberant—market indices are reaching new heights, labor markets remain strong, and the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates soon. Abroad, economic bright spots are appearing in Japan, Europe, and elsewhere. Yet global uncertainty remains high—especially given the possible economic implications of the broad policy shifts signaled by the new US administration. According to IMF director Christine Lagarde, a global ‘race to the bottom’ in taxes, trade, or financial regulation would be a ‘black swan’ with devastating economic consequences. What does the future hold for the US and the global economy in the era of Donald Trump?