Kenyans went to the polls on Tuesday to vote in a highly anticipated presidential election, as well as dozens of contests for governors, senators, and other positions across the country. The outcome won’t just matter to Kenyans either. The fraught East African region looks to Kenya as a source of stability, so its neighbors are eager to see peaceful results too.
Kenyan elections have a troubled history, but with democracy declining across so much of the globe, Kenya this year stands out as a possible ray of hope.
Local and international media have presented voter turnout as a bad news story because it’s down this year from the last election’s impressive 80%. This reportedly reflects a disenchanted electorate. But the final tally, according to Kenya’s independent election commission, still exceeded 65%. For context, that nearly equals the high-water mark that U.S. turnout reached in 2020. Kenya’s least interested electorate is as engaged as America’s most eager. No one in Kenya takes democracy for granted.
The process has also been peaceful so far. This could change as results are announced, but the atmosphere doesn’t seem as charged as it’s been before.
The country’s recent past has been marred by election violence stoked by political leaders in contests traditionally decided along ethnic lines. More than 1,200 people were killed in the aftermath of the 2007 elections. The last election in 2017 saw far less turmoil, but it still included the murder of an election official days before the vote and dozens of people killed in violence in the aftermath.
During that election, I was living in Naivasha, a town in the Rift Valley that saw significant violence after the 2007 polls. It became eerily quiet before election day as many people stayed home or fled to other parts of the country in expectation of unrest.
While the fear was palpable, so was a sense then that people were tired of the violence and impatient with politicians who spurred it on. Kenyans who wanted to get on with their lives turned out to be less susceptible to the bait. Fewer people felt the need to flee their homes this year, and it seems the politicians now know better than to rile things up (at least so far).
Another sign that democracy is working is the element of surprise. Races up and down the ballot were highly competitive, all the way to the presidency. No results were preordained, and who will win the top post remains uncertain as the independent election commission proceeds with its tallying process.
We cannot say the same of many other countries across the continent. Take Uganda or Cameroon, where unfree elections merely cement the power of presidents for life, or Mozambique, where a single ruling party has dictated leadership since independence. The voters of Kenya will have their say, and, if the outcome is accepted (or contested peacefully in accordance with the constitution), the system will have worked as intended.
Also notable is that voters this year are deciding based on issues, not ethnicity. It helps that this is the first time in 20 years that a member of Kenya’s largest ethnic group, the Kikuyu, is not on the ballot for the top position. But Kenyans are also reacting to a skyrocketing cost of living and unemployment crisis. They’re voting for who they think will best address the national economy rather than who is more likely to look out for their tribe. This shift could be changing politics in a way that makes them less risky or prone to violence.
The irony that U.S. elections are getting more tribal with increased fear of violence at the same time is hard to ignore.
I reached out to Jeff Smith, founding director of Vanguard Africa, to ask how it was going on election day. He and his team were monitoring polls in Kisumu, another hot spot for election violence in the past. “Some minor issues but nothing newsworthy or ominous yet,” he replied.
Indeed, what was most notable about Kenya’s polling day was how unremarkable it was. While that could change if the uncertainty drags out or the outcome is contested, signs suggest more stability than before.
Kenya and its elections are far from perfect. Politics are dominated by dynastic political families and the ultrawealthy class, and the country’s independent election commission has a controversial past. This election is not yet over either. Results are still being tabulated, and plenty of time remains for disaffected politicians to wreak havoc in the days and weeks ahead.
Whoever prevails, the next president will also face tough challenges, as Kenyans struggle with high prices, destructive drought and endemic corruption. Any one of these issues could prompt violence or other instability under the right cocktail of conditions.
But if politicians and the public can avoid doing anything more newsworthy in the election’s aftermath, Kenyans have reason to be optimistic about the country’s democratic progress.
Elizabeth Shackelford is a senior fellow on U.S. foreign policy with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. She was previously a U.S. diplomat and is author of “The Dissent Channel: American Diplomacy in a Dishonest Age.”
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