November 24, 2015 | By Karl Friedhoff

Youth and Politics in South Korea

Young South Korean's at a polling station in a Goshichon. REUTERS/Lee Jae-Won

For those that follow South Korea’s politics and foreign affairs, the generation gaps that exist across a variety of issues are part and parcel to the subject. Steven Denney has touched on the issue for The Diplomat, Jiyoon Kim outlined an ongoing catalyst for these generational gaps—a transformation in national identity—and Steven and I also discussed this in a short piece on South Korea’s new nationalism. But nothing serves to crystallize these generational gaps better than a good old-fashioned public opinion survey.

In its latest poll, Gallup Korea1 found approval for South Korea’s President, Park Geun-hye, to be 40 percent [link in Korean]. But looking into those numbers reveals a massive generational gap on attitudes towards the president. Among those aged 60 or older, nearly three-quarters (73 percent) approve of the job she is doing. Moving down in age brackets2 also means a reduction in presidential approval. The nadir comes among those in their 20s, where just 13 percent approve of her job performance. That creates a 60 percentage point gap between the oldest Koreans in the survey and the youngest.

To put that in some perspective, let’s look at President Obama’s approval rating. While 49 percent of Americans approve of his job performance as of the November 15, 2015 Gallup poll, the generational gap was a mere 20 percentage points. Among those 65 and older, 43 percent approved of President Obama’s performance while that number was 63 percent among those aged 18-29. Of course, the United States is not facing the same generational pressures, but is acutely divided along party lines. There, the approval rate gap is a whopping 75 percentage points with 85 percent of Democrats approving and just 10 percent of Republicans stating the same.

So, in framing the importance of the generational division in Korea, it is helpful to think about it along the lines of the seriousness of the partisan divisions in the United States. But there is one major difference: in the United States there is currently a viable opposition. (Feel free to debate the definition of viable amongst yourselves.) In Korea, it is not clear that this is the case. The opposition party there continues to garner support from roughly 20 percent of the population, and about the same support from Korea’s youth, just as it has for the last several years. In fact, the opposition hasn’t won a major national election since the 2004 National Assembly campaign.

Korea’s youth is left with a ruling party it does not support and an opposition party it cannot support. Add to this the fact that Korea is a rapidly aging society—meaning the vote share of Korea’s youth is being diminished in terms of the overall electorate—and a picture begins to emerge of a Korean society that will see its youth increasingly marginalized from politics.

This does not bode well for South Korea. The greatest danger is that its youth will completely unplug from the political process, leaving the political process and the country’s leadership to ossify further even as Korea’s internal and external challenges increase.
 
[1] It should be noted that Gallup Korea is not affiliated with the more familiar Gallup operating in the United States and other countries. (It’s a long story.)
[2] In polling in Korea, age brackets are always done by decades. That is, 19-29 forms the youngest, followed by 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, and then 60+. 

About

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs highlights critical shifts in American public thinking on US foreign policy through public opinion surveys and research conducted under the Lester Crown Center on US Foreign Policy. 

The annual Chicago Council Survey, first conducted in 1974, is a valuable resource for policymakers, academics, media, and the general public. The Council also surveys American leaders in government, business, academia, think tanks, and religious organizations biennially to compare trends in their thinking with overall trends. And collaborating with partner organizations, the survey team periodically conducts parallel surveys of public opinion in other regions of the world to compare with US public opinion. 

The Running Numbers blog features regular commentary and analysis from the Council’s public opinion and US foreign policy research team, including a series of flash polls of a select group of foreign policy experts to assess their opinions on critical foreign policy topics driving the news.

Archive

| By Sara McElmurry

Calling a Vote before the Curtain Call

Soon-to-be-former Speaker John Boehner has shot down immigration advocates’ requests that he call a vote on immigration before he leaves Congress at the end of the month. But numbers from the 2015 Chicago Council Survey suggest that advancing a vote might not be a bad idea.


| By Karl Friedhoff

Meet the New South Korea

South Korea is no longer sitting back and absorbing North Korea's provocations. A look at attitudes on identity and reunification among South Korea's youth suggests that in the future this will become the norm, not the exception.

| By Craig Kafura

The Politics of the Iran Deal

Republicans have come out strongly against the Iran nuclear deal, and have also used it to slam their biggest Democratic rival for 2016, Hillary Clinton. But is the deal actually a problem for Clinton?




| By Craig Kafura

Americans Support Ending Cuba Trade Embargo

As the United States and Cuba continue to work towards a normalization of the relationship, results from the new 2015 Chicago Council Survey show that Americans favor lifting the trade embargo on Cuba and believe the proposed changes in US-Cuba relations will benefit both countries.






| By Craig Kafura

The Republican Divide on Immigration

There are over a dozen Republican candidates in the running for their party's nomination, whether or not they've formally announced. On most topics, they present a unified front—but immigration has proven to be a far more divisive topic.