July 16, 2015 | By Karl Friedhoff

Trump Flatlines Among Latinos

Donald Trump thinks he will win the Latino vote in 2016. Good luck with that. In a new poll conducted by Univision, 79 percent said that they find Donald Trump’s comments about Latinos offensive. In case you were busy reading up on the implosion of Reddit, following the Pluto flyby, fully immersed in the Gold Cup, or just generally avoiding silly season within the GOP as primaries approach here’s a very brief overview of those comments.

Trump said the immigrants coming from Mexico are criminals, “rapists”, and “bringing drugs” to America. That’s it. That’s the entire update. What else is really needed to understand why 71 percent in the Univision poll have an unfavorable view of Mr. Trump?

Given the seriousness of those accusations, a review of the available data on crime rates—noticeably absent from Trump’s remarks—would seem like a necessity. A new report by the American Immigration Council does exactly that. (The report is covered in more detail by The Wall Street Journal here.) For the TL;DR crowd, here’s the opening sentence from the Executive Summary of the report:

For more than a century, innumerable studies have confirmed two simple yet powerful truths about the relationship between immigration and crime: immigrants are less likely to commit serious crimes or be behind bars than the native-born, and high rates of immigration are associated with lower rates of violent crime and property crime.

In a normal year, Trump’s comments would have simply been attributed to the impolitic ravings of an also-ran looking to up his national profile. But in 2015, with Mr. Trump looking competitive (for now) in the polls, they could present a serious problem for the GOP.

Craig Kafura, a colleague at The Chicago Council, recently broke down GOP attitudes on immigration for an op-ed in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The piece focuses on Scott Walker’s immigration stance, but also applies to Mr. Trump. In a nutshell, aiming at the far right on immigration may serve the interest of increasing support in the short-term, but will undermine the ability to win moderates in a broader election.

Luckily for the GOP, it is early days and no one expects Trump to make a serious run at the party’s nomination (except Trump himself). Unluckily for the GOP, he has plenty of time to further damage the GOP’s standing among Latino voters. In a bit of train wreck theatre, it is this expectation that is making the first GOP debate on August 6 such a highly anticipated event. Grab the popcorn and enjoy the spectacle. 

About

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs highlights critical shifts in American public thinking on US foreign policy through public opinion surveys and research conducted under the Lester Crown Center on US Foreign Policy. 

The annual Chicago Council Survey, first conducted in 1974, is a valuable resource for policymakers, academics, media, and the general public. The Council also surveys American leaders in government, business, academia, think tanks, and religious organizations biennially to compare trends in their thinking with overall trends. And collaborating with partner organizations, the survey team periodically conducts parallel surveys of public opinion in other regions of the world to compare with US public opinion. 

The Running Numbers blog features regular commentary and analysis from the Council’s public opinion and US foreign policy research team, including a series of flash polls of a select group of foreign policy experts to assess their opinions on critical foreign policy topics driving the news.

Archive

#TBT 1974: #NOTNixonian

Is the US public turning on President Donald Trump like it turned on former President Richard Nixon? Running Numbers is digging out its archived polls to look back at Nixon’s approval ratings compared to those of Trump to see whether US public opinion is following a similar path.



Heading into Brexit talks, Britain is as divided as ever

On the heels of the shocking General Election outcome, the UK-EU Brexit negotiations have begun. But the road ahead for these talks is far from smooth: recent polling indicates that the public is increasingly split on what exactly would qualify as an acceptable deal.



| By Craig Kafura

UK General Election 2017: Parliament and Polls Hung Out to Dry

As the results of the United Kingdom’s snap election filtered in last Friday, most headlines echoed shock: Theresa May and her Conservative Party had lost the large majority in Parliament that seemed almost guaranteed just a few weeks ago. What drove this shocking shift? Did anyone see it coming?


Trump’s Paris Pullout: Not Popular with US Public

President Trump recently announced that he plans on pulling the United States out of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, a decision that is out of step with the views of the public. According to a number of surveys conducted over the past year, a majority of Americans support US participation in the agreement.


| By Dina Smeltz

The Urban-Rural Divide?

Are Americans as divided along geographic lines when it comes to key foreign policy matters as their voting patterns suggest? 


| By Karl Friedhoff

Moon Jae-In's Victory Does Not Put US-Korea Alliance at Risk

With the election of Moon Jae-In to the presidency of South Korea, there are concerns that the US-Korea alliance hangs in the balance. Those fears are overblown. While there are rough waters ahead, much of that will emanate from the Trump administration's handling of cost-sharing negotiations in the near future.


| By Dina Smeltz

The Foreign Policy Blob Is Bigger Than You Think

The Blob isn't just science fiction. When it comes to US foreign policy, its reach is far and wide with wide swaths of agreement between foreign policy elite and the general public. A new report from the Council and the Texas National Security Network explains.


| By Dina Smeltz

American Views of Israel Reveal Partisan and Generational Divides

Despite partisan differences on taking a side in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and on the status of US-Israel bilateral relations, overall trends from Chicago Council Survey data indicate that the relationship between the United States and Israel will continue to be viewed warmly by the American public.


#TBT: That Time We All Feared Chemical and Biological Weapons

In the spirit of Throw Back Thursday, Running Numbers is digging out its archived polls to look back at America’s foreign policy feelings of old. This week, we’re looking at Council data on Americans' perceptions of the threat posed by chemical and biological weapons in the late 90s and early 00s.



| By Dina Smeltz

​Polls Measure So Much More than Voting Intentions

The polling community took a lot heat following the failure of forecasters and data journalists to predict Trump's triumph in the 2016 election. But polls measure so much more than voting intentions says Council senior fellow Dina Smeltz.


| By Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura

Public Opinion in the US and China

There is perhaps no more important bilateral relationship in the world today than the one between the United States and China—the world’s two most important players in terms of economics and security. Where do the Chinese and American publics stand on key issues in the relationship, and what policies do they want to see their respective nations pursue worldwide?