July 16, 2015 | By Karl Friedhoff

Trump Flatlines Among Latinos

Donald Trump thinks he will win the Latino vote in 2016. Good luck with that. In a new poll conducted by Univision, 79 percent said that they find Donald Trump’s comments about Latinos offensive. In case you were busy reading up on the implosion of Reddit, following the Pluto flyby, fully immersed in the Gold Cup, or just generally avoiding silly season within the GOP as primaries approach here’s a very brief overview of those comments.

Trump said the immigrants coming from Mexico are criminals, “rapists”, and “bringing drugs” to America. That’s it. That’s the entire update. What else is really needed to understand why 71 percent in the Univision poll have an unfavorable view of Mr. Trump?

Given the seriousness of those accusations, a review of the available data on crime rates—noticeably absent from Trump’s remarks—would seem like a necessity. A new report by the American Immigration Council does exactly that. (The report is covered in more detail by The Wall Street Journal here.) For the TL;DR crowd, here’s the opening sentence from the Executive Summary of the report:

For more than a century, innumerable studies have confirmed two simple yet powerful truths about the relationship between immigration and crime: immigrants are less likely to commit serious crimes or be behind bars than the native-born, and high rates of immigration are associated with lower rates of violent crime and property crime.

In a normal year, Trump’s comments would have simply been attributed to the impolitic ravings of an also-ran looking to up his national profile. But in 2015, with Mr. Trump looking competitive (for now) in the polls, they could present a serious problem for the GOP.

Craig Kafura, a colleague at The Chicago Council, recently broke down GOP attitudes on immigration for an op-ed in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The piece focuses on Scott Walker’s immigration stance, but also applies to Mr. Trump. In a nutshell, aiming at the far right on immigration may serve the interest of increasing support in the short-term, but will undermine the ability to win moderates in a broader election.

Luckily for the GOP, it is early days and no one expects Trump to make a serious run at the party’s nomination (except Trump himself). Unluckily for the GOP, he has plenty of time to further damage the GOP’s standing among Latino voters. In a bit of train wreck theatre, it is this expectation that is making the first GOP debate on August 6 such a highly anticipated event. Grab the popcorn and enjoy the spectacle. 

About

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs highlights critical shifts in American public thinking on US foreign policy through public opinion surveys and research conducted under the Lester Crown Center on US Foreign Policy. 

The annual Chicago Council Survey, first conducted in 1974, is a valuable resource for policymakers, academics, media, and the general public. The Council also surveys American leaders in government, business, academia, think tanks, and religious organizations biennially to compare trends in their thinking with overall trends. And collaborating with partner organizations, the survey team periodically conducts parallel surveys of public opinion in other regions of the world to compare with US public opinion. 

The Running Numbers blog features regular commentary and analysis from the Council’s public opinion and US foreign policy research team, including a series of flash polls of a select group of foreign policy experts to assess their opinions on critical foreign policy topics driving the news.

Archive






| By Dina Smeltz, Sara McElmurry

Climate Change, Community Hot in Luring Latino Votes

Moving into the 2016 campaign season, savvy politicians are recognizing that Latinos are a growing and complex political force and will work to earn their favor at the voting booth. As politicians in Chicago and beyond look to woo this influential voting bloc, recent surveys have pointed to what could be unlikely talking points for future campaigns:  climate change and community. 



| By Sara McElmurry

Executive Action is Here—Time for a New “Start” on Legislative Reform

Following President Obama’s much-anticipated announcement on executive action on immigration, we turn our attention to the continued need for long-term legislative reform from Congress. While leaders argue we should “start with border security,” here’s what Chicago Council Survey polling tells us about the public’s appetite for immigration enforcement provisions.

| By Craig Kafura

Executive Action: Immigration Policy and Politics

Americans' perception of large numbers of immigrants and refugees coming into the US as a critical threat and the priority they place on controlling and reducing illegal immigration have both declined substantially over the last two decades. What does that mean for the public's reception of executive action for undocumented immigrants?


| By Dina Smeltz

A Second Look at US-Canada Relations

A recent Globe and Mail article referenced new survey data from Nanos Research/UB Survey characterizing a relationship “adrift” between Americans and Canadians. But a closer look at these and other polling numbers show that it’s not so much that Canadians and Americans are losing interest in cooperating. Rather, it appears that publics in both countries are feeling less threatened by security risks and are therefore less likely to support actions that focus on security and terrorism.