May 16, 2018 | By Karl Friedhoff

North Korea Installs Speed Bumps on Path to Singapore

The road to Singapore for Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un was always expected to be a bumpy one. With yesterday’s statement from Kim Kye-Gwan—a high ranking North Korean diplomat—the speed bumps were installed. The meeting is still likely to take place on June 12, but North Korea has now forcefully restated its negotiating position. Complete denuclearization will not be considered unless the process is done in tandem with the inflow of economic aid.  

This speed bump installment actually began several days earlier when North Korea requested a high level meeting with South Korean counterparts at the DMZ. South Korea agreed. The meetings were scheduled to coincide with longstanding joint US-South Korea military exercises—exercises North Korea certainly knew about. Using this as a pretext, North Korea turned around and cancelled the meetings it had requested and then went on the offensive.

Mr. Trump’s National Security Adviser, John Bolton, was singled out with Mr. Kim calling him repugnant. Mr. Bolton had previously said that North Korea should take Libya as its model for denuclearization. Given North Korea’s sensitivity about regime change, the comparison was not looked well upon in Pyongyang.

And so here we are, awaiting the response from Washington.

These new developments put a dent in the theory that this was part of a PR ploy on the part of North Korea aimed at enhancing its standing around the world, and in South Korea in particular. The summit with South Korea’s Moon Jae-in was successful in those terms. Following the summit, 69 percent of South Koreans reported some level of trust in North Korea to denuclearize. In a separate poll conducted by Gallup Korea, 58 percent said they expected North Korea to fulfill the key points of the Panmunjum Declaration, and a further 65 percent said the summit improved their view of Kim Jong Un.

But those numbers are now likely to reverse, especially as South Koreans had little trust in North Korea from the start.

The summit in Singapore is still likely to take place. The photo-op for both leaders will be too enticing to pass up. But now both parties have reinforced their maximalist positions, and that may not make for successful negotiations.  

Joohyun Kwon contributed to this piece.

About

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs highlights critical shifts in American public thinking on US foreign policy through public opinion surveys and research conducted under the Lester Crown Center on US Foreign Policy. 

The annual Chicago Council Survey, first conducted in 1974, is a valuable resource for policymakers, academics, media, and the general public. The Council also surveys American leaders in government, business, academia, think tanks, and religious organizations biennially to compare trends in their thinking with overall trends. And collaborating with partner organizations, the survey team periodically conducts parallel surveys of public opinion in other regions of the world to compare with US public opinion. 

The Running Numbers blog features regular commentary and analysis from the Council’s public opinion and US foreign policy research team, including a series of flash polls of a select group of foreign policy experts to assess their opinions on critical foreign policy topics driving the news.

Archive

The Surprising Popularity of Trade

Results from the 2016 Chicago Council Survey reveal that international trade and globalization remain popular with the American public. 



| By Dina Smeltz, Karl Friedhoff

On Terrorism, Americans See No End in Sight

The June 10-27 Chicago Council Survey finds that the American public considers international terrorism to be the most critical threat facing the nation. In combating terrorism Americans say that almost all options should be on the table, yet a large majority expect that occasional acts of terror will be a part of life in the future.


| By Dina Smeltz, Craig Kafura

Americans Support Limited Military Action in Syria

The 2016 Chicago Council Survey, conducted June 10-27, reveals that Americans across partisan lines support limited military actions in Syria that combine air strikes and the use of Special Operations Forces. There are deep partisan divides on accepting Syrian refugees, and widespread skepticism toward arming anti-government groups or negotiating a deal that would leave President Assad in power. 



| By Dina Smeltz, Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura

Republicans Back Trump, but Not All of his Policies

If the general election were held today, a solid majority of Republicans (including self-described Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents) say they would vote for Mr. Trump in the presidential contest against Secretary Clinton. But Donald Trump was not the top choice for many Republicans among the full field of primary candidates. While eventually deciding to back Trump, those who were hoping for a different nominee are not endorsing some of Trump’s key positions.


| By Karl Friedhoff

Flare-ups in Taiwan-China Relations Here to Stay

The China-Taiwan relationship may be due for flare-ups in the coming years, and China's recent decision to suspend diplomatic contact with Taiwan could set the tone for the short-term direction of cross-strait relations. But polling suggests that the Taiwanese public prefers a pragmatic approach to relations with China, limiting the publicly palatable options facing Taiwan's President Tsai, Karl Friedhoff writes.


Nuclear Energy: Americans Favor Stagnation

How do Americans feel about nuclear energy? From Chernobyl to Homer Simpson, nuclear energy doesn’t have a stunning reputation, but until recently polls showed a majority of Americans favor its use for energy. In fact it appears that support for nuclear energy is linked with energy availability and that Americans would rather develop other energy sources.






The British Debate on Nuclear Disarmament

Last month the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament, a UK group founded in 1958, held its largest rally since 1983. Yet disarmament remains unpopular amongst the general public. 



| By Karl Friedhoff

NYPD Union Takes to the Polls

Karl Friedhoff looks at a survey conducted by the New York City Patrolmen's Benevolent Association, which finds high levels of dissatisfaction among its members. But publicly available surveys of officers appear to be rare.