May 16, 2018 | By Karl Friedhoff

North Korea Installs Speed Bumps on Path to Singapore

The road to Singapore for Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un was always expected to be a bumpy one. With yesterday’s statement from Kim Kye-Gwan—a high ranking North Korean diplomat—the speed bumps were installed. The meeting is still likely to take place on June 12, but North Korea has now forcefully restated its negotiating position. Complete denuclearization will not be considered unless the process is done in tandem with the inflow of economic aid.  

This speed bump installment actually began several days earlier when North Korea requested a high level meeting with South Korean counterparts at the DMZ. South Korea agreed. The meetings were scheduled to coincide with longstanding joint US-South Korea military exercises—exercises North Korea certainly knew about. Using this as a pretext, North Korea turned around and cancelled the meetings it had requested and then went on the offensive.

Mr. Trump’s National Security Adviser, John Bolton, was singled out with Mr. Kim calling him repugnant. Mr. Bolton had previously said that North Korea should take Libya as its model for denuclearization. Given North Korea’s sensitivity about regime change, the comparison was not looked well upon in Pyongyang.

And so here we are, awaiting the response from Washington.

These new developments put a dent in the theory that this was part of a PR ploy on the part of North Korea aimed at enhancing its standing around the world, and in South Korea in particular. The summit with South Korea’s Moon Jae-in was successful in those terms. Following the summit, 69 percent of South Koreans reported some level of trust in North Korea to denuclearize. In a separate poll conducted by Gallup Korea, 58 percent said they expected North Korea to fulfill the key points of the Panmunjum Declaration, and a further 65 percent said the summit improved their view of Kim Jong Un.

But those numbers are now likely to reverse, especially as South Koreans had little trust in North Korea from the start.

The summit in Singapore is still likely to take place. The photo-op for both leaders will be too enticing to pass up. But now both parties have reinforced their maximalist positions, and that may not make for successful negotiations.  

Joohyun Kwon contributed to this piece.

About

Dina Smeltz joined The Chicago Council on Global Affairs in February 2012 as a senior fellow in public opinion and foreign policy, and directed the Council’s 2012 survey of American public opinion (see Foreign Policy in the New Millennium).  She has nearly 20 years of experience in designing and fielding international social, political and foreign policy surveys.

As the director of research in the Middle East and South Asia division (2001-2007) and analyst/director of the European division (1992-2004) in the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the US State Department’s Office of Research, Dina conducted over a hundred surveys in these regions and regularly briefed senior government officials on key research findings. Her experience includes mass public and elite surveys as well as qualitative research.  She has written numerous policy-relevant reports on Arab, Muslim and South Asian regional attitudes toward political, economic, social and foreign policy issues.  Her writing also includes policy briefs and reports on the post-1989 political transitions in Central and Eastern Europe, and European attitudes toward a wide range foreign policy issues including globalization, European integration, immigration, NATO, and European security.

With a special emphasis research in post-conflict situations (informally referred to as a “combat pollster”), Dina has worked with research teams in Bosnia, Kosovo, Cyprus, Israel-Palestinian Territories and in Iraq (2003-2005), where she was one of the few people on the ground who could accurately report average Iraqis impressions of the postwar situation.  In the past three years, Dina has consulted for several NGOs and research organizations on projects spanning women’s development in Afghanistan, civil society in Egypt and evaluating voter education efforts in Iraq.

Dina has an MA from the University of Michigan and a BS from Pennsylvania State University.

Feel free to email Dina with comments or questions at dsmeltz@thechicagocouncil.org

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