At a Middle East conference this month in Warsaw, Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and Mideast adviser, said that the administration will unveil its much-vaunted Middle East peace plan after the April 9 Israeli elections. The plan will have an uphill climb, to say the least. Palestinian leaders have already rejected the forthcoming plan in light of the administration’s relocation of the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and its withdrawal of millions of dollars of aid to the Palestinians. Moreover, a joint 2018 poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) based in Ramallah and the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research (TSC) based in Tel Aviv found that support for a two-state solution – still the most preferred option – has steadily fallen to its lowest levels in more than a decade (49% among Israelis, 43% among Palestinians). One troubling finding is that those between the ages of 18-24 are the least supportive. At the same time, the 2018 Chicago Council Survey finds that American public support for an “independent Palestinian state” on the West Bank and Gaza strip is at its highest level yet (49%), with strongest support among self-described Democrats (62%, 46% Independents, 36% Republicans).
Khalil Shikaki and Dahlia Scheindlin, the authors of the joint survey report, offer three explanations for the decline in support: a lack of trust that the other side is sincere about efforts to reach a peace agreement, skepticism that a two-state solution is viable, and the significant opposition among highly ideological “national-religious and Haredi Israelis and the Palestinian Islamists.” The authors conclude that the perceived lack of feasibility is the most critical factor. Israelis sense that the status quo is good enough, and Palestinians sense that “settlement spread has gone too far” and have lost hope since they feel abandoned by the US as a negotiator.
Given the direction the Trump administration has moved US policy on Israel thus far, and Palestinians' sense that the US is a biased party, the outlook for the forthcoming plan seems pretty bleak.