April 8, 2019 | By Karl Friedhoff

Elite-Public Gap on China May be Decreasing

I’ve written in this space previously about the elite-public gap on the perceived threat of China. In the past that gap was quite robust. The foreign policy elite widely view China as a threat and/or competitor, as does the Trump White House, but those views did not filter down to the wider public. Dan Drezner covered this most thoroughly in a piece for the Washington Post. New data from the Chicago Council suggests this gap is beginning to narrow.

In surveys conducted in 2006, 2012, 2014, and 2018 respondents were nearly evenly split in viewing the United States and China as either mostly partners or mostly rivals. The overall consistency from 2006 to 2018 is remarkable in itself. But in a Chicago Council survey conducted in early 2019, those numbers may be beginning to shift. Now, 63 percent identify the countries as mostly rivals versus 32 percent as mostly partners.

 

It is too early to say what is driving this shift, if it will continue, or how long it will endure. However, the timing certainly suggests that the sustained negative portrayals of China by the Trump administration and the media are beginning to have an effect. This may be an unwelcome development for US-China relations in the future. But for those studying the influence of elite messaging and the influence on the general public this will be an interesting data point to watch.

About

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs highlights critical shifts in American public thinking on US foreign policy through public opinion surveys and research conducted under the Lester Crown Center on US Foreign Policy. 

The annual Chicago Council Survey, first conducted in 1974, is a valuable resource for policymakers, academics, media, and the general public. The Council also surveys American leaders in government, business, academia, think tanks, and religious organizations biennially to compare trends in their thinking with overall trends. And collaborating with partner organizations, the survey team periodically conducts parallel surveys of public opinion in other regions of the world to compare with US public opinion. 

The Running Numbers blog features regular commentary and analysis from the Council’s public opinion and US foreign policy research team, including a series of flash polls of a select group of foreign policy experts to assess their opinions on critical foreign policy topics driving the news.

Archive

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NYPD Union Takes to the Polls

Karl Friedhoff looks at a survey conducted by the New York City Patrolmen's Benevolent Association, which finds high levels of dissatisfaction among its members. But publicly available surveys of officers appear to be rare.

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O Canada! Public Opinion and the US-Canada Relationship

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| By Dina Smeltz

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Iran is holding parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections tomorrow. A recent University of Maryland survey of the Iranian public found that six in ten Iranians prefer that most of the parliament to be composed of the supporters of President Hassan Rouhani.





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Karl Friedhoff looks at polling done in South Korea on attitudes towards Japan to add perspective on the recent deal between Korea and Japan to resolve the "comfort women" issue.




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There is a renaissance in America’s interest in food and, more specifically, how food is produced. A new Chicago Council poll finds that contrary to the debate about hot-button issues like GMOs, antibiotics, and local food, the vast majority of Americans value food that is above all affordable, safe, and nutritious.

| By Karl Friedhoff, Dina Smeltz

Strong Asia Alliances, Divided Publics

New Council survey data shows that US relations with Japan and South Korea are strong. But mutual distrust between Japan and South Korea continues, even as the United States encourages strengthened relations in the face of a rising China.