April 8, 2019 | By Karl Friedhoff

Elite-Public Gap on China May be Decreasing

I’ve written in this space previously about the elite-public gap on the perceived threat of China. In the past that gap was quite robust. The foreign policy elite widely view China as a threat and/or competitor, as does the Trump White House, but those views did not filter down to the wider public. Dan Drezner covered this most thoroughly in a piece for the Washington Post. New data from the Chicago Council suggests this gap is beginning to narrow.

In surveys conducted in 2006, 2012, 2014, and 2018 respondents were nearly evenly split in viewing the United States and China as either mostly partners or mostly rivals. The overall consistency from 2006 to 2018 is remarkable in itself. But in a Chicago Council survey conducted in early 2019, those numbers may be beginning to shift. Now, 63 percent identify the countries as mostly rivals versus 32 percent as mostly partners.

 

It is too early to say what is driving this shift, if it will continue, or how long it will endure. However, the timing certainly suggests that the sustained negative portrayals of China by the Trump administration and the media are beginning to have an effect. This may be an unwelcome development for US-China relations in the future. But for those studying the influence of elite messaging and the influence on the general public this will be an interesting data point to watch.

About

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs highlights critical shifts in American public thinking on US foreign policy through public opinion surveys and research conducted under the Lester Crown Center on US Foreign Policy. 

The annual Chicago Council Survey, first conducted in 1974, is a valuable resource for policymakers, academics, media, and the general public. The Council also surveys American leaders in government, business, academia, think tanks, and religious organizations biennially to compare trends in their thinking with overall trends. And collaborating with partner organizations, the survey team periodically conducts parallel surveys of public opinion in other regions of the world to compare with US public opinion. 

The Running Numbers blog features regular commentary and analysis from the Council’s public opinion and US foreign policy research team, including a series of flash polls of a select group of foreign policy experts to assess their opinions on critical foreign policy topics driving the news.

Archive


| By Craig Kafura

Public Support for Foreign Aid Programs

Past surveys have found that Americans want to cut US spending on foreign assistance and dramatically overestimate how much the US spends on those programs. When asked to construct their own US budget in the 2018 Chicago Council Survey, Americans allocate far more than the US actually spends. 




| By James Drimalla

Bleak Outlook on US-Russia Relations

A new joint report by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Center finds experts have little hope for US-Russia relations in the near future.


| By James Drimalla

Millennials' Divergent Views on Global Affairs

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| By Karl Friedhoff

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| By Karl Friedhoff

Diplomacy in the Air on Korean Peninsula

In the coming months, there will be a flurry of diplomatic activity on the Korean Peninsula. This is good news for many South Koreans, even though the South Korea public still has doubts about North Korea's true intentions.


| By Dzena Berbic, Craig Kafura

America and the Millennial Agenda

Millennials have become the most populous living generation in the United States, overtaking Baby Boomers and Gen Xers in becoming the largest voting body. So what do Millennials want, and what are some of their noticeable generational differences? A recent Chicago Council on Global Affairs event featuring Congresswoman Robin Kelly (D-IL2), former Congressman Bob Dold (R-IL10), POLITICO’s Natasha Korecki, and Council pollster Craig Kafura, discussed Millennial attitudes and the Millennial political agenda.



| By Craig Kafura

O Christmas Tree

Christmas is a widely-celebrated holiday in the United States. Though the Christmas tree remains a popular symbol, Americans are changing the kind of tree they use in their homes—and a small but rising number are opting to celebrate without a tree altogether.