January 13, 2016 | By Karl Friedhoff

Eight Things to Know before the Next Republican Debate

Republican presidential candidates pose before the start of the debate on December 15, 2015. REUTERS/Mike Blake

Another Republican debate is upon us on January 14, and the intensity of the campaign trail is picking up. While there has been a lot of discussion about the internal challenges facing the Republican Party, there has been little work to outline the demographics and attitudes of Republican Party supporters heading into the presidential election. To help shed light on this, we use the data from the 2015 Chicago Council Survey to outline a general portrait of party supporters, as well their views on a couple of big issues on the campaign/election agenda.

Demographics

  1. Those who identify as Republican make up 30 percent of the sample in the 2015 Chicago Council Survey data. Looking back at data provided by Gallup going back to 2004, this share has not undergone drastic change, although it is somewhat down from highs of 38 percent Gallup recorded in late 2004. Numbers provided by Pew are in the same ballpark. (The Council demographic data is unweighted, but overall data is weighted to the general population based on the American Community Survey.)
     
  2. Race: Republicans are racially homogenous. This is certainly not a new finding, but the lack of diversity remains noteworthy. In the 2015 Chicago Council survey, fully 88 percent report being white, 2 percent as black, and 5 percent as Hispanic. This homogeneity is an ongoing concern for the Republican Party, as this New York Times piece notes. In contrast, Democrats are a much more diverse party. In the 2015 data, self-identifying Democrats were 63 percent white, 16 percent black, and 13 percent Hispanic.
     
  3. Religion: The Republican Party is also highly homogenous in terms of religious beliefs. While 88 percent report being Christian, with the next largest portion reporting no religion (8%). This is far below the national average of 23 percent that report no religion in a 2014 Pew study. Again, there are clear differences with self-identified Democrats. Among Democrats, 63 percent report their religion as Christian and 24 percent report no religion. No other religious group makes up more than 4 percent of either group.
     
  4. Ideology: Republicans are also highly aligned in terms of describing their ideology, perhaps not a surprise from a group that is highly homogenous. While 73 percent state they are conservative, and 23 percent moderate, just 5 percent identify as liberal. Among Democrats, there is a much larger spread, with 48 percent identifying as liberal, 39 percent as moderate, and 13 percent as conservative.
     

On the Issues

  1. Immigration: as this Chicago Council opinion brief points out, Republicans are the most likely of other partisan groups to think controlling and reducing illegal immigration is a very important goal for the United States. They are also the most likely to cite large immigrant inflows to be a critical threat to the United States.
     
  2. Islamic Fundamentalism: Two-thirds of Republicans cite Islamic fundamentalism as a critical threat to the United States. A minority (48%) of Democrats say the same. See more on US public attitudes toward the Middle East here.
     
  3. Climate Change: Republicans (12%) are by far the least likely to cite climate change as a serious and pressing problem. In fact, climate change shows the widest differences between Democrats and Republicans of all foreign policy issues presented in the 2015 Chicago Council Survey, followed by immigration.
     
  4. North Korea: While Republicans generally favor a more muscular approach to foreign policy, when it comes to how to best deal with North Korea, they look much like the rest of the American public. Roughly three-quarters of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents prefer diplomatic efforts to achieve a suspension of the North’s nuclear program. Eight in ten of each group also oppose accepting that North Korea will produce more weapons.

About

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs highlights critical shifts in American public thinking on US foreign policy through public opinion surveys and research conducted under the Lester Crown Center on US Foreign Policy. 

The annual Chicago Council Survey, first conducted in 1974, is a valuable resource for policymakers, academics, media, and the general public. The Council also surveys American leaders in government, business, academia, think tanks, and religious organizations biennially to compare trends in their thinking with overall trends. And collaborating with partner organizations, the survey team periodically conducts parallel surveys of public opinion in other regions of the world to compare with US public opinion. 

The Running Numbers blog features regular commentary and analysis from the Council’s public opinion and US foreign policy research team, including a series of flash polls of a select group of foreign policy experts to assess their opinions on critical foreign policy topics driving the news.

Archive

| By Dina Smeltz

The Urban-Rural Divide?

Are Americans as divided along geographic lines when it comes to key foreign policy matters as their voting patterns suggest? 


| By Karl Friedhoff

Moon Jae-In's Victory Does Not Put US-Korea Alliance at Risk

With the election of Moon Jae-In to the presidency of South Korea, there are concerns that the US-Korea alliance hangs in the balance. Those fears are overblown. While there are rough waters ahead, much of that will emanate from the Trump administration's handling of cost-sharing negotiations in the near future.


| By Dina Smeltz

The Foreign Policy Blob Is Bigger Than You Think

The Blob isn't just science fiction. When it comes to US foreign policy, its reach is far and wide with wide swaths of agreement between foreign policy elite and the general public. A new report from the Council and the Texas National Security Network explains.


| By Dina Smeltz

American Views of Israel Reveal Partisan and Generational Divides

Despite partisan differences on taking a side in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and on the status of US-Israel bilateral relations, overall trends from Chicago Council Survey data indicate that the relationship between the United States and Israel will continue to be viewed warmly by the American public.


#TBT: That Time We All Feared Chemical and Biological Weapons

In the spirit of Throw Back Thursday, Running Numbers is digging out its archived polls to look back at America’s foreign policy feelings of old. This week, we’re looking at Council data on Americans' perceptions of the threat posed by chemical and biological weapons in the late 90s and early 00s.



| By Dina Smeltz

​Polls Measure So Much More than Voting Intentions

The polling community took a lot heat following the failure of forecasters and data journalists to predict Trump's triumph in the 2016 election. But polls measure so much more than voting intentions says Council senior fellow Dina Smeltz.


| By Karl Friedhoff, Craig Kafura

Public Opinion in the US and China

There is perhaps no more important bilateral relationship in the world today than the one between the United States and China—the world’s two most important players in terms of economics and security. Where do the Chinese and American publics stand on key issues in the relationship, and what policies do they want to see their respective nations pursue worldwide? 



| By Diana C. Mutz

How Trade Attitudes Changed from 2012-2016

Trade was an important issue in the recent presidential election, but not in the way the media and many prominent observers have led us to believe.  The dominant narrative in the media was that disgruntled manufacturing workers whose jobs had been sent overseas emerged, understandably, as trade’s strong opponents, thus making Trump with his strong anti-trade rhetoric their natural ally.


Who Run the World? Foreign Policy Attitudes on Women and Girls

In partnership with the New America Foundation, the 2016 Chicago Council Survey included two questions developed to provide better insight about the importance of promoting women's rights and women's participation in societies around the world. 


This Presidential Election Was All about Identity, Not Qualities and Issues

Donald Trump just pulled off one of the most stunning upsets in American political history, capturing the presidency last Tuesday night. How did it happen? This election was all about identity politics, with Trump able to connect with non-college whites, especially white men without a college degree.



| By Dina Smeltz

The US-Russian Relationship

The 2016 Chicago Council Survey partnered with the Levada Analytical Center in Moscow to ask Americans and Russians how they feel about each other and—more importantly—each other’s government. 


| By Richard C. Eichenberg

Gender Difference in Foreign Policy Opinions: Implications for 2016

There are three patterns in American politics that take on special significance in 2016: the gender divide in Presidential elections; the low support for Donald Trump among women; and the growing discussion in the foreign policy community about the inclusion of women in the policy process. Nonresident fellow Richard Eichenberg explores the extent of gender difference in the 2016 Chicago Council Survey data and assesses the relevance of any differences to this year’s presidential election.