Reliable access to water is crucial for the world’s farmers to raise their crops or livestock. It is estimated by the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) that global agriculture accounts for about 70 percent of all water withdrawals from aquifers or surface sources, with the share even higher, at 80 percent, in the US. As the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increase, the effects of climate change will deepen, resulting in rising average temperatures and more frequent droughts and floods. Under these conditions, farmers’ ability to obtain needed water will be under increased pressure due to competition from industrial, urban/residential and energy users.
This subject was addressed in a fascinating session at the recent USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum held in Crystal City, Virginia in February 2015, and I will be drawing on some of the presenters’ ideas in exploring these issues. Based on projections from three well-respected global climate models, the US regions facing the highest probability of water shortages occurring by 2060 are the Southern Great Plains and Southwest. According to the 2013 USDA Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey, states west of the Mississippi River account for about 80percent of the irrigated acres, roughly the same region where the water stress is projected to be the greatest under climate change. Much of that irrigated land draws on the massive Ogallala aquifer which runs under eight states from west Texas to eastern Wyoming. A Kansas State University study estimates that the aquifer will be 69 percent depleted by 2060, assuming current use trends continue.
In addition to strong demand for water for irrigation in this region, which may increase under climate change because of reduced winter snow storage and greater evapotranspiration during the growing season, other components of water demand in the region are growing as well. Between 2000 and 2010, the population in Western states grew by 13.8 percent, which puts increased pressure on urban/residential demand for water in the region.
Also, increased use of water for hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, to free oil and natural gas from deeply buried shale layers creates additional water demand, especially in the West and Great Plains. Of the 18 US states where fracking is taking place, 13 are in this region, and 55 percent of such wells are in states that have experienced severe droughts in recent years. As a result of the fracking revolution, those states are also attracting more people to fill jobs in the new shale oil and gas economies, thus increasing residential demand for water as well.
It will take a concerted effort among all sectors of the US economy to avert this approaching crisis, taking advantage of innovative mechanisms and practices that improve water use efficiency. Community or regional-based examples include:
- promoting regional conservation alliances that provide benefits to farmers for adopting water conserving practices, thus preserving water for other residents of the watershed,
- creating exchanges to facilitate investment in modernizing water infrastructure in small cities and towns that can’t otherwise attract private sector equity,
- encouraging development of environmental markets, and
- developing new mechanisms for storing and retaining water.
Individual farmers can also contribute to addressing this problem. Innovative farmers like Steve Olson from Plainview, Texas and Annie Dee from Aliceville, Alabama, both lead farmers in the Farm Journal Foundation Farm Team program, have adopted strip till and no-tillage practices respectively, and Annie has also installed water storage facilities on her farm. These steps help them conserve water and enable them to produce healthy crops when their neighbors’ fields are stricken by drought.
More farmers need to follow Steve’s and Annie’s examples. In 2008, the tillage survey conducted by the Conservation Technology Innovation Center (CTIC) at Purdue University found that 41 percent of the land planted to the eight major crops utilized conservation tillage practices, the highest shares among soybean, corn and sorghum producers. If these types of practices can be adopted more widely, American farmers will indeed be able to do more with less water and still show a profit in the process.