By Elizabeth Leake, InSTePP Communication Specialist, University of Minnesota
The outlook for feeding a growing global population may not be as bleak as some fear, says a new study by InSTePP researchers at the University of Minnesota. The report, A Bounds Analysis of World Food Futures, challenges many perceptions about the prospects for global agriculture in the coming decades. Population, income and biofuels growth lead many to conclude that demand for agricultural output will double by 2050, and some foresee looming land shortages. In contrast, the study’s authors find in favor of a future in which agricultural consumption grows more modestly.
The researchers applied a new bio-economic approach to modeling global agricultural futures, stressing the implications of uncertainties in key factors that shape agricultural consumption and production worldwide. They emphasize the roles of an aging, still growing, and increasingly richer population, expanding use of biofuels and the dwindling availability of new land for agriculture. Land shortages and slowdowns in crop yield growth are projected for some regions. However, the study shows that it is still possible to meet future demands for food, biofuels and fiber given adequate and sustained global investments in agricultural research and development.
International Science and Technology Practice and Policy Center (InSTePP) authors Philip Pardey, Jason Beddow, Terrance Hurley, Vernon Eidman, and Timothy Beatty prepared this report with support from the University of Minnesota and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation by way of the HarvestChoice project. Photo by Malcolm Carlaw.
International Science and Technology Practice and Policy Center (InSTePP) authors Philip Pardey, Jason Beddow, Terrance Hurley, Vernon Eidman, and Timothy Beatty prepared this report with support from the University of Minnesota and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation by way of the HarvestChoice project. Photo by Malcolm Carlaw.