The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) recently released a report detailing the implications of increasing global food insecurity for the United States. Countries in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia are at the greatest risk of food insecurity due to a number of factors, including population growth, instability and violence, climate change, and unemployment. According to the ODNI, food insecurity has the potential to threaten U.S. interests abroad and provoke low-level conflict.
What are the implications of increasing food insecurity? How can this impact the United States?
The ODNI states that “declining food security will almost certainly contribute to social disruptions and political instability” in some countries within the next 10 years, as it draws attention to inadequate government institutions or sources of developmental assistance. In addition to this threat of decreasing state legitimacy, the ODNI identifies low-level conflict as a likely outcome of food insecurity in the form of skirmishes between farmers and pastoralists forced into competition, or regional disputes over increasingly limited marine fisheries. The ODNI posits that such disputes, which could occur in already-contested areas like the South China Sea, may conflate other sources of tension to exacerbate conflict.
Additionally, terrorists and other insurgent groups may take advantage of at-risk areas by asserting control over food sources to expand membership and earnings, and by undermining governments that cannot provide sufficient food for their citizens. Thus, food insecurity could put countries and regions of strategic importance to the United States at risk of instability and contribute to the exploitation of at-risk populations by extreme elements.
What are the causes of rising global food insecurity?
The ODNI identifies several global phenomena that will limit food availability and access over the next decade, increasing the risk of global food insecurity. These conclusions echo many of same concerns highlighted in previous work by the Chicago Council.
Conflict
Conflict presents a great challenge to food security, as evidenced by the current turmoil in Syria. In the short term, instability impedes food distribution, farming, and public service provision, and precipitates rising food prices. In the long-term, the destruction of farm assets, land, and water resources/infrastructure hinders the recovery of the agricultural sector.
This limitation is especially troubling given the huge potential for agricultural growth in developing countries. The Chicago Council has highlighted statistics which suggest that Africa’s food and agriculture industry could be worth over $1 trillion by 2030. However, projections for agricultural development and that of other sectors could be limited by conflict.
Increasing populations will put pressure on food systems to increase production. Simultaneously, urbanization will limit available farmland as residential construction expands, increase competition for water and wage-paying (rather than agricultural) employment, and encourage the use of ineffective urban-rural transportation networks, exacerbating food losses.
Lower purchasing power
ODNI reports that declines in purchasing power relative to food will become more prevalent and intensify food insecurity over the next decade. Unemployment or loss of livelihood (possibly as a result of instability, natural disaster, or disease) will limit incomes, while food prices will face upward pressure from declining resources, population growth, and conflicts that decrease food supply. Initially, this effect will be most prevalent in urban areas, where people do not produce their own food, but it will eventually impact rural areas as well.
Weather/climate pressures
Extreme weather events and climate change can threaten agricultural production and increase food prices, particularly for agricultural workers who depend on regular weather to farm effectively. Drought is of great concern, as it can provoke conflict or necessitate large amounts of food aid. ODNI predicts that one region-wide drought will occur in the Horn of Africa or the Sahel region in the next 10 years.
The ODNI’s analysis indicates that agricultural production is highly sensitive to climate change via several pathways. This assertion resonates with previous work of the Chicago Council, which has also identified more rapid pest reproduction, decreased livestock productivity, and interrupted food transportation as products of rising temperatures.
Constraints on key inputs
According to the report, food security will also be impacted by increasingly limited access to many inputs necessary for agricultural production. Demand for water is increasing, but available supply will not meet this demand without more efficient usage of water resources—in some countries, groundwater exhaustion will decrease food production. Additionally, many fertilizer ingredients are located in unstable countries or regions, which jeopardizes their access. For those inputs that remain available, many low-income countries will probably be unable to sustain the subsidies that make them affordable.
The ODNI also points out that land is increasingly scarce, and the land that does exist is under pressure from environmental degradation. Soil depletion, desertification, drought, and the loss of fertile soil all limit food production, and cost up to 5 percent of world agricultural GDP.
Increased prevalence of agricultural diseases
Increasing trade and globalization improves food availability, but the ODNI reports that it will heighten the spread of plant and livestock diseases. Changing temperatures and deforestation will increase contact between wildlife and livestock, and introduce pests to new regions. Additionally, the die-off of pollinators, such as bees, will increasingly impact harvests.
Inefficient government policies
Governments and nongovernmental actors use food security as a political tool, and in certain instances, this action threatens the food supply. Governments that broker state-owned land to domestic or international developers or enact policies to reduce food importation produce trade restrictions and unsustainable reforms that ultimately limit food access or availability.
Previous Chicago Council reports have highlighted the effectiveness of measures to address such regulatory barriers and border measures that hinder regional trade and market integration in developing nations. These interventions can increase profitability for smallholder farmers and stabilize prices, but without them, inefficient government institutions will continue to harm food security.
What can be done to stabilize global food security?
ODNI identifies several solutions to mitigate food insecurity by improving food access through nontraditional means. Primarily, ODNI suggests policies to address food waste, a problem which currently attracts only 5 percent of agricultural R&D—despite the fact that one third of global food production is lost or wasted. These policies include innovations to address food loss due to disease, contamination, or spoilage, and media campaigns against waste.
ODNI also advocates for the development of better storage/transportation methods to reduce crop loss, as well as the creation of nonfarm wage jobs. Such positions would establish a safety net for farming families against unfavorable weather/other harvest disruptions, and a new source of agricultural income to reduce urbanization and incentivize investment. Additionally, ODNI promotes research in minor crops as a solution to enhance nutrition and diet diversity, and technical education programs to attract skilled labor to the agricultural sector.
According to the ODNI, the United States will continue to have an important role in the facilitation of agricultural development to promote global food security. The United States faces high expectations as it continues to support such efforts, given its current role in the international aid architecture—particularly in international agricultural development. Developing countries will look to the United States for techniques better suited towards their limited technological capacities and regional dietary preferences and practices.
The Chicago Council on Global Affairs applauds this attention to the devastating potential of global food insecurity. Not only does food insecurity impose a terrible burden of malnutrition, chronic hunger, and poverty on millions of people, but it also presents tangible threats to U.S. national security. Investments to alleviate food insecurity foster social stability and economic growth, and the United States’ continued commitment is critical to ensuring improved food availability and access in the future.