Critical Factors to Meet the Greatest Challenge in Human History
This week, close to two thousand leaders from across the United States and the globe came together in Des Moines, Iowa to debate, discuss, learn and forge solutions to feed the world. The World Food Prize 2014 Borlaug Dialogue, honoring Dr. Norman Borlaug who pioneered the green revolution agriculture technologies in wheat that helped feed millions of poor farmers in India and Pakistan in the 1960’s, centered upon the greatest challenge in human history. By 2050, there will be 9.6 billion people on the planet, most of whom will now be participating in middle class economies and eating more protein based diets. The world’s greatest challenge lies before us: how will we feed the world’s growing middle class by 2050, in the face of climate change, and with limited natural resources?
There is an urgent need for farmers to find new ways to adapt to volatile weather and climate change patterns that we face. Population and income growth are increasing the demand for food, feed, fiber and fuel. The emerging consensus by economists, scientists, political leaders, and farmers participating in the World Food Prize is simple: we must act now to produce food sustainably in the face of climate change. As the devastating drought in California and the southwest of the United States enters its third year, the message is being driven home—improving productivity and new methods and practices in agriculture, coupled with technological innovation and clear public policies will be the solutions to feed the world using less water and land, and conserving the resource base.
There are three critical pieces to in this productivity goal—maize, rice, and wheat, the “Big Three” staple crops that the world depends on. If the current trends are not altered, by 2050 climate change could decrease global maize yields by up to 18 percent, rice yields could drop by 7 percent, and wheat yields could decline by up to 36 percent.
So how can farmers in the US, and indeed the rest of the world, be supported to become more resilient to the changing climate and ensure we all have enough food on our tables?
Increasing the productivity of agriculture, while minimizing the impact on soil, water, and using less fertilizer, fuel and labor, is the key. Productivity, combined with a reduction in loss and waste along the entire agricultural value chain, is the pathway to meeting the world’s coming needs for food, feed, fiber and fuel.
New research from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) provides a clear insight into the technologies that can have the highest impact on farm productivity, prices, hunger and trade flows as we approach 2050. The report describes the relative yield gains (on a country, regional, and global level) that 11 different technologies and practices provide for maize, rice and wheat—both for a climate that is “hotter and wetter” and one that is “colder and drier.”
Take the practice of “No-Till” agriculture, for example. No-Till is a form of conservation agriculture that uses minimum or no soil disturbance, often in combination with crop rotation and cover crops, to ensure crops are getting the maximum amount of water and nutrients.
IFPRI’s online model shows that Investing in no-till technology in North America could boost irrigated maize yields by a whopping 57.6%, even under climate change conditions.
And it’s not just the US that could benefit. Climate change is already impacting food-insecure areas where hunger is a persistent problem, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. In Tanzania, the same research shows that no-till cultivation of irrigated maize under the hotter/wetter climate scenario can result in a huge yield increase of 122 percent by 2050.
Other technologies have also been shown to have a dramatic effect on North American farms. Efficient use of nitrogen, for example could boost irrigated maize yields by 46.4 percent. In Myanamar, the same technology could boost yields of irrigated rice by almost 68 percent.
There is no one-size-fits-all solution. While in the US, the practices of No-Till and use of Heat Tolerance Technology (improved genetic varieties with characteristics allowing plants to maintain yields at higher temperatures) for maize and wheat provide the highest boosts in yields by 2050—these technologies have less impact in regions that do not encounter drought so regularly.
The global population won’t reach 9 billion until 2050—but the challenge of growing food must be met here, and now. The world needs to produce more, by using and wasting less. Solutions must be found for farmers of all scales and size to adapt to the aggressive changes in climate we are all witnessing. The answers are out there—but require a great deal of investment and commitment to make them a viable option for farmers. But if the result is protecting our environment whilst keeping food prices down and the population nourished, the decision to invest is surely a no-brainer.
About
The Global Food and Agriculture Program aims to inform the development of US policy on global agricultural development and food security by raising awareness and providing resources, information, and policy analysis to the US Administration, Congress, and interested experts and organizations.
The Global Food and Agriculture Program is housed within the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, an independent, nonpartisan organization that provides insight – and influences the public discourse – on critical global issues. The Council on Global Affairs convenes leading global voices and conducts independent research to bring clarity and offer solutions to challenges and opportunities across the globe. The Council is committed to engaging the public and raising global awareness of issues that transcend borders and transform how people, business, and governments engage the world.
Support for the Global Food and Agriculture Program is generously provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Blogroll
1,000 Days Blog, 1,000 Days
Africa Can End Poverty, World Bank
Agrilinks Blog
Bread Blog, Bread for the World
Can We Feed the World Blog, Agriculture for Impact
Concern Blogs, Concern Worldwide
Institute Insights, Bread for the World Institute
End Poverty in South Asia, World Bank
Global Development Blog, Center for Global Development
The Global Food Banking Network
Harvest 2050, Global Harvest Initiative
The Hunger and Undernutrition Blog, Humanitas Global Development
International Food Policy Research Institute News, IFPRI
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center Blog, CIMMYT
ONE Blog, ONE Campaign
One Acre Fund Blog, One Acre Fund
Overseas Development Institute Blog, Overseas Development Institute
Oxfam America Blog, Oxfam America
Preventing Postharvest Loss, ADM Institute
Sense & Sustainability Blog, Sense & Sustainability
WFP USA Blog, World Food Program USA
Archive
Commentary - Protecting Children in Crisis: When Climate Disasters Strike
On a long plane ride home from the Philippines, I thought of the dozens of emergency sites I’d visited on this trip and the many courageous women I had met.
Commentary - Local Solutions are Essential to Help Farmers Adapt to Changing Climates
While modern innovation transformed agriculture, helping farmers continuously adapt their operations in the face of climate change remains a top priority around the world.
Commentary - Providing Food for the Future
Feeling hungry? Perhaps not now, but with the world's population expected to reach 9 billion by mid-century, tremendous efforts are needed to ensure there will be food for everybody.
Commentary - In Mozambique, Farmer Field Schools help vulnerable communities to tackle the impacts of climate change
In March 2013, rain fell in Namizope and Mukuvula communities in Angoche District, Nampula in Northern Mozambique until the water was almost up to people’s knees, inundating fields and crops.
Commentary - Which Agricultural Technologies Will Safeguard Our Food Supply?
The future is, by definition, uncertain. But when it comes to climate change, scientific research has warned us what to expect.
Commentary - Research, Science and Technology for Climate Smart Agriculture
The Chicago Council Symposium theme “Advancing Global Food Security in the Face of Weather Volatility and Climate Change” is a timely one.
Commentary - We need to irrigate Africa: Why and How
Production should be in synch with demand – think “just in time”. How do you do that? You irrigate – wherever you can.
USAID and InterAction Sign Landmark Development Partnership - And Now the Work Starts
USAID and InterAction have just announced a first-of-its-kind agreement in a major effort to accelerate progress in the global fight against hunger and malnutrition.
Commentary - Beyond 20 Percent: Why multisectoral approaches to improving nutrition matter
Undernutrition is the single biggest contributor to child mortality, and one of the world’s most serious health and human development challenges.
Commentary - Why We Still Need a Work Programme on Agriculture
Climate change has been dubbed by scientists as "the greatest challenge of our time."
Meet the Experts – Kindra Halvorson
You’ve spent a large portion of your career building public and private partnerships for agriculture to alleviate hunger and poverty. What progress has been made in terms of this collaboration?
Commentary - Sustainable intensification: a single solution for a double challenge
Our planet faces an urgent, double challenge. First – around 827 million people in the world are still going hungry.
Commentary - Changing the paradigm for drought management: The role of National Drought Policies
Drought is the costliest of all natural disasters and affects more people than any other weather-related event.
Meet the Experts: John Coonrod
What makes agriculture an important global issue? And how will climate change affect food production?
1,000 Days: The Period That Decides the Health and Wealth of the World
In this tiny village in northern Uganda, Esther Okwir heard something she could barely believe: Her child could be the country’s president one day.
