There is a food crisis brewing in the Middle East and Africa—one that calls for greater resilience to food supply and agricultural shocks. Consequently, as the world turns its attention to climate change in the midst of COP21, it is important to keep global food security in mind as an opportunity to mitigate the effects of a warming planet as well as a wide variety of instabilities.
El Niño is wreaking havoc on weather patterns across the Horn of Africa. Drought in some areas and heavy rains in others could leave 10 million people in the region without sufficient food. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to this threat, given that they are unable to plant and harvest effectively without regular rainfall.
The strength of this year’s El Niño has already provoked the worst drought in Ethiopia in over a decade, and with it, harvest shortages. More than 8 million people are now in need of food assistance—double as many as there were in August. Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Madagascar have suffered extreme crop failure due to drought, as have Lesotho, Angola, and Mozambique, to a lesser extent. With such unpredictable weather, these countries will suffer from acute food insecurity in the months to come.
Simultaneously, the millions of people fleeing from conflict and poverty in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and other states are without steady access to food as they travel to, and often once they arrive at, the refugee camps and communities where they settle. Conflict in Yemen, for example, has made it difficult for food importers and aid workers to provide an adequate supply of food, which has increased prices (for those who could afford food to begin with). Nearly 13 million Yemenis are struggling with hunger, and clean water shortages are exacerbating disease and malnutrition. The UN has declared a “catastrophic” hunger situation in South Sudan, where the civil war has cut off entire regions from humanitarian assistance. Malnutrition is also on the rise in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger, where Boko Haram activity is forcing people out of their homes.
These strains on agricultural production are likely to continue. Scientists predict that the Horn of Africa will become even drier as the climate changes, which could exacerbate drought and hunger if new models for agriculture are not introduced in the region. Moreover, with respect to the migrant crisis, growing numbers of refugees have the potential to end up in settlements interminably dependent on external food aid.
This is the case in Dadaab, the world’s largest refugee camp, where half a million people, termed “protracted refugees,” settled in Kenya beginning in 1991. There, refugees rely on the 5,000 tons of food shipped in by the UN each month—although food rations were recently cut by 30 percent due to budgetary shortfalls. This problem of permanent refugee camps has exploded over the past decade, and it is not unthinkable that the millions of migrants currently making their way towards Europe could end up in a similar plight.
More than ever, investments in agricultural development that support smallholder farmers are critical to global food security, especially for the world’s most vulnerable people. Exposing farmers to modern methods allows them to succeed in the face of weather volatility: Climate-smart technologies and educational campaigns can insulate production from the effects of climate change and secure the food supply. The Indonesian government, for example, has promoted a wide variety of techniques designed to insulate farmers from drought. They’ve encouraged farmers to begin planting early in the season, use supplementary water pumps if needed, or plant alternative crops better suited to drier climates. USAID’s Feed the Future program has also funded initiatives in Bangladesh to develop and disseminate submergence- and saline-tolerant rice varieties to counteract high salinity and flooding. Since 2013, 350,000 Bangladeshi farmers have gained access to this technology, bolstering their incomes and yields in the face of climate pressure.
Additionally, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), policies that protect agricultural livelihoods can encourage people faced by instability—who are primarily employed in the agricultural sector— to stay on their land, if safety permits, or return when the violence has ended. The FAO has invested heavily in Somalia to this end; despite conflict and drought, Somalia was Africa’s leading livestock exporter in 2011 thanks to investment in livestock disease prevention. The FAO is also carrying out such programs involving seed assistance, veterinary support, infrastructure repair, and cash-for work programs in Syria, to not only bolster food security during crisis, but to potentially reduce migration pressure.
In an increasingly volatile world, resilience is key to ensuring global food security. This resilience can be achieved through concerted investment and innovation directed at smallholder farmers, to protect their livelihoods—even in the face of instability and a changing climate.