CONTACT:
Margot Friedman, M+R Strategic Services 202-332-5550
Paula Chrin, M+R Strategic Services 202-478-6138

On the eve of the Beijing Olympics, a new national survey by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs has found that Americans clearly perceive China as a rising global power, with profound consequences for the United States. China is now seen as the second most influential country in the world after the United States and the third most important country to the United States after Great Britain and Canada, ahead of even Japan.

“Americans get it. They grasp fully the reality of China’s rise,” said Marshall M. Bouton, president of The Chicago Council on Global Affairs. “In the midst of broader anxiety about the U.S. economy, they are concerned about China’s impact, but they want to cooperate with, not contain China.”

The report, based on a nationally-representative survey of Americans conducted in July of this year, shows that economic concerns underlie Americans’ worries. There has been a sharp rise in the proportion of Americans who believe that China’s economy will someday grow to be as large as the U.S. economy. Three-quarters of respondents (76%, up 16 points since 2006) now foresee this development, and the public’s response tilts towards the belief that this change would be mostly negative. An increasing number of Americans (67%, up nine points since 2006) see China as an unfair trader, the only one among six major trading partners of the United States. A large minority (40%, four points higher than 2006) also believes the development of China as a world power is a “critical threat” to U.S. vital interests.

Despite their worries, large majorities of Americans reject any drastic policy response. Sixty-four percent oppose active efforts to limit China’s rise, instead favoring friendly cooperation and engagement. Few display any interest in military confrontation with China. When asked about a variety of circumstances that might justify deploying U.S. troops in other parts of the world, a mere 32 percent of Americans favor using them if China invaded Taiwan.

"The U.S.-China relationship is just too important to risk conflict," said Professor Benjamin Page of Northwestern University, a consultant on the survey.

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs conducted more than 1,500 interviews in a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. The survey asked over fifty questions designed to gauge American attitudes on a number of foreign and domestic policy issues in the lead-up to the 2008 presidential elections. The Council has been conducting nationwide public opinion surveys on American views on foreign policy since 1972.  These surveys provide insights into the current and long-term foreign policy attitudes of the American public on a wide range of global topics.

Among the key findings on China:

• A growing majority (76%, 16 points higher than in 2006) believe China’s economy will grow to be as large as the U.S. economy; 51% believe this development will be equally positive and negative, but a growing percentage (42%, up 9 points since 2006) believe this will be mostly negative, with only 6% saying it will be mostly positive
• Many more Americans (40%, up from 24% in 2006) are aware that China loans more money to the United States than vice versa
• 40% of Americans believe that the development of China as a world power is a critical threat to the vital interests of the United States, though this is only a 4-point increase since 2006
• More Americans (67%, a 9-point increase since 2006) see China as practicing unfair trade with the United States
• 64% believe the United States should undertake friendly cooperation and engagement in dealing with the rise of China’s power, with 33% saying the United States should actively work to limit the growth of its power
• 52% believe that China is “very important” to the United States; only two other countries out of 18 asked about are considered “very important” by more Americans: Great Britain (60%) and Canada (53%)
• Americans see China as the second most influential country in the world after the United States, giving it an average rating of 7.9 on a 0 to 10 scale
• Feelings towards China remain almost unchanged since 2006, rating a fairly cool 41 on a 0 to 100 scale where 50 in neutral.

Full Report (PDF)

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs, founded in 1922, is a prominent, independent and nonpartisan organization committed to influencing the discourse on global issues through contributions to opinion and policy formation, leadership dialogue, and public learning.  The Chicago Council has been conducting nationwide public opinion surveys on American views on foreign policy since 1972.  These surveys provide insights into the current and long-term foreign policy attitudes of the American public on a wide range of global topics.