New Report Reveals Surprising Views on Current and Potential Use of Soft Power in Asia by the United States, China, Japan and South Korea

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Ann Brown, M+R Strategic Services
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Angela Pauly, M+R Strategic Services
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(Washington, D.C.) – Just months before China is set to take the world’s center stage during the 2008 Summer Olympics to showcase its many economic advances, it still ranks below the United States as a multifaceted power in the opinion of its Asian neighbors, according to a new report released today by The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the East Asia Institute (EAI).

The report, which is based on public opinion surveys in five East and Southeast Asian countries and the United States, reveals that perceptions of China’s “soft power” – the ability to wield influence by indirect, non-military means – generally trail those of the United States and Japan.  These perceptions persist despite China’s strong economic relationships in Asia and around the world, and concerted efforts by Beijing to leverage the Olympic Games to bolster its public image. But, at the same time, sizeable majorities in all the countries surveyed agreed that hosting the games will ultimately increase China’s prestige.

“The findings of this report clearly illustrate that China is recognized by its neighbors as the undisputed future leader of Asia, but it still has real work to do to win hearts and minds in the region. To enhance its credibility in Asia, China will need to invest more resources in building up its soft power, especially in the diplomatic, social and cultural spheres,” said Marshall M. Bouton, president of The Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

The report also reveals that contrary to other polls taken since the United States invaded Iraq, which reflected negative views of the United States, a majority of Asians in the surveyed countries still admire the United States on many fronts, including economic, diplomatic, cultural and educational, and see its military presence in Asia as a stabilizing force, notably preventing an arms race between China and Japan.

“Considering negative perceptions of the United States elsewhere in the world, it was somewhat surprising to see such strongly positive feelings about the United States among the Asian countries we surveyed,” said Christopher Whitney, executive director of studies at The Chicago Council. “It is clear that the United States still has a strong foundation upon which to build in the region.”

Another unexpected finding of the report focuses on the complex relationship between the United States and China. American feelings towards China have deteriorated since similar surveys were taken by The Chicago Council in ’04 and ’06 and a significant number of those questioned expressed general unease about the future of the relationship. In contrast, Chinese perceptions of the United States have grown noticeably warmer compared to the 2006 survey and Chinese demonstrate consistently positive attitudes towards U.S. influence in Asia.

The Chicago Council on Global Affairs and EAI conducted more than 6,000 interviews in China, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and the United States in January and February 2008, before the unrest in Tibet and the Sichuan earthquake placed a spotlight on events inside China. The survey asked between 40 and 60 questions in each country designed to gauge how citizens of these five Asian nations and the United States view each country’s popular culture, commercial prowess and brands, intellectual influence and appeal, universities, diplomatic reputations, different political systems, and more.

The results were organized to produce indexes of the pillars of soft power: economic, cultural, human capital, diplomatic and political. The five indexes were averaged to produce an overall Soft Power Index. Change was measured on a few key questions that were also asked in a 2006 Chicago Council survey.

Among the key findings:

On China:

• Majorities or pluralities in every country are at least “somewhat worried” that China could become a military threat to their country in the future (Vietnamese were not asked this question).
• China trails the United States in perceptions of its diplomatic, political, and human capital power in Asia, though perceptions are more positive in Southeast Asia than East Asia.  China is also seen as less effective than the United States in promoting its policies to people in Asia by all surveyed publics.
• On the question of whether China builds trust and cooperation among Asian countries, it receives low ratings on a 0-10 scale from Americans (3.5), Japanese (4.6) and South Koreans (4.9), ranking China third or fourth among the group.
• But when asked whether China will increase its prestige by hosting the 2008 Summer Olympics pluralities or majorities in all countries surveyed – U.S. (49%), China (86%), Japan (56%), South Korea (82%), Indonesia (65%) and Vietnam (85%) – agree that it would. 

On the United States:

• The United States ranks at or near the top of every category in the Soft Power Index.
• Pluralities or majorities in China (44%), Japan (47%), South Korea (42%) and Indonesia (58%) all agree that U.S. influence in Asia has increased over the last 10 years.  Majorities in China, Japan, Vietnam and South Korea see overall U.S. influence and U.S. cultural influence in Asia as positive.
• The United States is given the highest mean score for importance as a trade and investment partner by South Koreans (8.5 on a 0-10 scale), Japanese (8.0) and Vietnamese (8.0). Chinese give both the United States and the EU the same score (7.6), significantly ahead of Japan (6.7) and South Korea (6.8).

On U.S. – China Relations:

• Americans have very cool feelings toward China. On a 0-100 feeling scale, Americans give China a very low average rating of 35, down from 40 in 2006 and 44 in 2004.  Sixty eight percent of Americans believe they share “no” or “little values” in common with Chinese.
• Chinese give the United States an average rating of 61 on the 0-100 scale of feelings, which is significantly warmer than the rating of 51 which it received in 2006. Sixty six percent of Chinese think the United States is having a “somewhat” or “very positive” influence in Asia and 63% believe the United States has been either “very” or “somewhat effective” in managing tensions between Taiwan and China. 
• Both publics are concerned that the other country could become a military threat to their country: 76% of Chinese and 70% of Americans say this could happen.

An executive summary and full report are available in PDF form.